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New Must Read - 2009 US Foreign Policy Highlights

Tuesday December 29, 2009

A new Must Read was added: 2009 Lowlights and Highlights in US Foreign Policy. It lists the Top 5 Lowlights and Highlights in US foreign policy for the year 2009.

Are US Borders Too Open?

Tuesday December 29, 2009

On Christmas Day 2009, a Nigerian national, Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab ignited a small explosive device aboard a flight from Amsterdam to Detroit. Since the beginning of the War on Terrorism, the US has made great efforts to be perceived as fighting ideological extremists and potential terrorists but not everyday Muslims. From the development of the Al-Hurra television station to President Obama's speeches in Cairo and Istanbul, the Government has tried to deliver a positive message about America and its intentions to the global Islamic community.

The Abdumutallab incident is a reminder that there is a perception that a preponderant number of "sensational" terrorist incidents emanate from persons originating from countries where there are radical Islamic elements. The events of 9/11 combined with the more recent activities of Najibullah Zazi and others bring fear to Americans that foreign-born terrorists are in their midst. Should America try to close the borders to these people?

America could be more restrictive in allowing student, travel or other visas to persons from countries where there are known significant radical elements such as Pakistan or Yemen. Perhaps Abdulmutallub, a citizen of Nigeria who traveled to Yemen should have been denied permission to visit the US.

Clearly, such a measure would not be foolproof in eliminating terrorism. But could it reduce the number of actual or potential terrorists landing on America's shores? America has tried to keep its borders open during the War on Terrorism in order to wage the war of ideas and not depict an image of exclusion.

However, restricting borders would likely result in a backlash in the Islamic world and perhaps engender more animosity toward American targets overseas. And terrorism on US soil can be homegrown with Major Nidal Malik Hasan, David Coleman Headley and Adam Gadahn aka Azzam the American as examples of American citizens raised in the US who have lashed out against America and the West. Perhaps there would be even more resentment among American Muslims.

Would the potential increase in homeland security outweigh the fallout from travel restrictions? I am unsure. The US has remained remarkably free from major terrorist incidents since the events of 9/11. So, the US is likely to stay the course for the time being.

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A Visit to Romania: 20 Years After the Revolution

Monday December 21, 2009

2009 Romanian Presidential Candidates Traian Basescu, Crin Antonescu and Mircea Geoana
2009 Romanian Presidential Candidates Traian Basescu, Crin Antonescu and Mircea Geoana (Getty Images)

Recently, I returned from a visit to Romania during the 20th Anniversary of the 1989 Revolution that brought democracy to Romania and the most recent Presidential elections. With those two events juxtaposed, it was a fascinating place to be for those interested in the democratic process. During this week, there were numerous television retrospectives of the historical events of 1989.

About Romania

Romania is located in Eastern Europe and borders Serbia, Bulgaria, Moldova and Ukraine. The Danube River separates Romania and Bulgaria, and Romania also has a coastline along the Black Sea. Romania is a democracy and is a member of NATO and the European Union (EU). Romania and Bulgaria are the EU's two newest members, having acceded in 2007. Although a monarchy still exists, Romanian royalty have not ruled for many years. During World War II, Marshall Ion Antonescu, ruled Romania, and attempted to switch sides from the Axis to the Allies. In 1965, the infamous dictator Nicolae Ceausescu came to power and was overthrown by the people's revolution in 1989. The country is perhaps most famous for being the home of Vlad Tepes or Vlad the Impaler, better known as Count Dracula.

Revolution

During the days of Communism and the Warsaw Pact, Nicolae Ceausescu ruled Romania. Rule under Ceausescu was characterized by shortages of goods, grandiose development projects such as the People's Palace and the Securitate, Romania's secret police. During the season of change in Eastern Europe, a protest broke out in Timisoara in Western Romania on December 16, 1989. The date of the Timisoara protest is usually credited as the starting point of the Romanian Revolution although there were earlier protests. As the protests spread, Ceausescu decided to denounce the Timisoara protest on December 21st to a crowd of 110,000 people in central Bucharest. The crowds interrupted his speech.

Ceausescu, unable to quell the crowd, retreated to the Central Committee building. The Revolution had begun. The senior Army officers and adversaries in the Communist turned against Ceausescu. Amid street battles on December 22, Ceausescu and his wife Elena were captured, court-martialed, and executed on Christmas Day 1989. Ion Iliescu, a former Communist and head of the National Salvation Front, became the new leader of Romania and introduced a multiparty democracy. Many argue that democratic reforms have been insufficient and too much wealth remained in the hands of those people in power in the old regime. Nonetheless, since the 1989 Revolution, Romania has held peaceful elections with orderly transitions in power.

2009 Elections

The 2009 Romanian Presidential elections were a fascinating experience, reminiscent of the Bush-Gore election of 2000. The challenger, Mircea Geoana of the Social Democratic Party, the former Communists, was ahead in each of the exit polls released at 9 PM on Election Day and projected the winner with a margin of 51-49 percent. Geoana was shown drinking champagne and celebrating with supporters on election night. The next morning when the ballots were counted, the incumbent, President Traian Basescu of the Liberal Democratic Party was declared the victor by a razor-thin margin of 50.3 to 49.6 percent. The Romanian Diaspora, often estimated at 10 million people, voted heavily for Basescu and was seen as the key to his victory. Many members of the Diaspora purportedly were unwilling to vote for the ex-Communists. There were allegations of fraud and the Social Democrats challenged the election results in Romania's Constitutional Court. The OSCE judged the Romanian elections as generally fair and the election results were upheld in court, Geoana conceded and Basescu begins his second five-year term as President. Basescu nominated Emil Boc as Prime Minister and is in the process of assembling a coalition of the Liberal Democrats, Hungarian and other minority party members, and independents to form a new Government.

US-Romanian Relations

The United States and Romania share excellent relations. Romania is considered part of "New Europe", or the more recently democratized countries of Eastern Europe that tend to look across the Atlantic for geopolitical leadership. Romania has troops on the ground in Afghanistan. The US and Romania conduct joint military exercises at the Romanian training facility in Babadag, near Constanta, Romania. President Bush visited Romania twice. President Traian Basescu paid a visit to President Bush at the White House in 2006 and is generally seen as pro-American. His defeated opponent in the 2009 elections, Mircea Geoana, served as Ambassador to the United States. The US is in the process of building a new, large Embassy complex in the northern suburb of Bucharest known as Baneasa. In 2007, the US Agency for International Development closed its Romania office citing Romania's EU membership and socioeconomic progress. One of the few contentions between the US and Romania is the visa issue. Romanians may not travel to the US without a visa. Citizens from most EU countries are allowed to travel to the US without a visa.

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Tracking Al-Qaeda to The Ends of The Earth But Not 1000 Miles for the Somali Pirates

Sunday December 6, 2009

Somali Pirate Escorted by French Marines, April 2009
Somali Pirate Escorted by French Marines, April 2009 (Tony Carumba/AFP/Getty Images)

On December 1st, President Barack Obama laid out his new Afghanistan strategy augmenting the existing 68,000 troops on the ground in Afghanistan with more than 30,000 reinforcements. On the same day, reported with much less fanfare, was the hijacking of an oil tanker about 800 miles off the coast of Somalia containing $20 million worth of crude oil headed for New Orleans. The Greek-flagged tanker, the Maran Centaurus, was carrying 275,000 tons of crude oil. With the monsoon season ending in that part of the globe, the Somali pirates are back in action.

Capturing the Pirates is Not Easy

With increased patrols in the Gulf of Aden along the Somali coast, the pirates have moved further offshore into the open ocean away from the international naval presence. Finding the pirates in small motorized dinghies far offshore has proven difficult as hijackings have increased in 2009 over 2008 despite the larger international naval presence. The obvious response of placing armed guards on the ships does not always work. Not all ships can carry armed guards because the content is flammable. A firefight with pirates could prove deadly.

According to the International Maritime Bureau, 38 ships have been attacked and 10 hijacked in the last two months. Pirates now hold 11 ships and 264 crew members off the coast of Somalia. Rear Admiral Peter Hudson, commander of the European Union's Naval Force counter-piracy operations, said the area of ocean off the East African coast is too vast for international naval forces to secure from pirates.

Does the Response Seem Limited?

The US Government has an unwavering commitment to prosecute the war against terrorism in Afghanistan but where is the commitment to fight piracy? To be fair, there are no nuclear weapons in Somalia and no 9/11-type terrorist event emanated from Somalia. The pirate targets are not civilian populations but ships owned and insured by large corporations.

Nonetheless, the pirates, arguably out of economic desperation, terrorize international shipping, thumb their noses at international law, kidnap and threaten the lives of American and Allied sailors, cause large-scale financial damage and endanger the supply lines of oil to the United States. For all intents and purposes, Al-Qaeda activity in Afghanistan has been decapitated. Pirate activity in and around Somalia is hot and heavy. We can argue about the potential for terrorist activity against the US and its Allies that still exists in Afghanistan. However, there is repeated and persistent criminal activity against American and Allied assets near Somalia and the response seems limited.

What Can the US Do?

It is impossible to protect every ship particularly smaller fishing and pleasure craft in the ocean. The question is can we protect the larger ships and provide a measure of deterrence to the pirates.

The first idea is to increase the intelligence assets in the area to warn the ships of possible pirate activity along the ship's course. In addition, there should be penalties to shipping companies that do not heed warnings from intelligence sources. Some of the crew of Maersk Alabama, the ship hijacked by Somali pirates on April 8th, blame Richard Phillips, the ship's captain famously rescued when US Navy SEAL sharpshooters killed his captors, for the pirate attack because he failed to heed warnings about treacherous waters,

Most of the increased military presence off the Somali coast has been naval. Perhaps more naval aviation is needed to provide cover to ships scheduled to sail in the area and respond rapidly when necessary. The Predator drones or unmanned aerial vehicles, best known for targeting Al-Qaeda operatives in the Middle East, could be used against the pirates. The biggest problem with Predator is the potential for collateral damage. This problem may be mitigated by the pirates being on the open seas.

Finally, the pirates do need to land and refuel. Perhaps a few well-planned search and destroy missions would provide deterrence to high-stakes economic crime. Increased measures will undoubtedly cost the US and its Allies more money. However, the amount of money is a mere drop in the bucket compared to the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. At stake is the safety of the oil supply, billions of dollars in economic loss and countries appearing powerless at the hands of random criminals.

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