On December 10 the news is expected to be confirmed: the international community, despite tremendous effort, has failed to resolve the final status of Kosovo.
Years of talks and negotiations since the war ended in 1999 were intended to find a resolution which somehow respected the desire of Kosovars to be independent of Serb control while still respecting the territorial integrity of Serbia. With no agreement, the chief United Nations negotiator, Martti Ahtisaari, was instructed to deliver his own final recommendation to the U.N. Security Council.
Ahtisaari's recommendations called for Kosovo to be split from Serbia and given near full independence. Kosovo would move from current United Nations control to oversight by the European Union. Whether boldly stated or not, this would be a temporary situation on the path to full sovereignty.
Most of the world's nations seemed to agree with this course of action. But Serbia and Russia had serious objections. Russia worries that granting independence for Kosovo would create a positive precedent for the would-be breakaway regions within Russia, including Chechnya. These concerns matter because Russia is a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council with veto authority. Russia has blocked the final status plan from being considered.
Further talks involving all the interested nations have been held, but the impasse has not been broken. Negotiators will report this failure to the United Nations on December 10.
What Will Happen Next?
The newly elected leaders of Kosovo say that, once the report takes place, they will unilaterally declare Kosovo to be an independent nation. And then?On the political and diplomatic front, a number of nations including the United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy will give diplomatic recognition to Kosovo. But Russia, Serbia, and a few others most certainly will not.
On a human scale, the areas with mixed Serb and Kosovar populations--especially those places along the border and in the divided city of Mitrovica--will be tense and the likelihood of violence seems to be very high. NATO's Kosovo Force, including 1,500 American troops, are responsible for security in Kosovo, and they will no doubt be on high alert.
The response of Serbia, at this point, is unpredictable. And the whole situation will add greatly to the tension between the United States and Russia. One thing is certain, more diplomacy--not less--will be needed to make sure this crisis does not lead to military action and even greater suffering.
More Resources
- Interview with James Lyon, special Balkans adviser to the International Crisis Group, from Radio Free Europe
- Can the United Nations Prevent Bloodshed in Southeast Europe?, from the About Guide to US Foreign Policy
- Will the World Grant Independence?, from the About Guide to US Foreign Policy
- NATO's Kosovo Force
- The United Nations Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo
Update: Kosovo declared independence on February 17, 2008.
