Conventional wisdom said the Iraq Study Group was going to provide, in the end, simple political cover for President Bush to change his policy in Iraq. The thinking was that this eminent, bipartisan gathering of gray hairs would give a realistic summary of the facts on the ground and spell out a reasonable way forward which could not be ignored by the president. Calling it an "intervention" might be a little harsh but not too far off.
Now people are wondering if the intervention has failed.
Rather than clinging to the Baker-Hamilton report as a life raft, the administration is holding it at arms length. The president and his people have minimized the report, basically saying they will "think about it." They say they might implement some of the suggestions and add that the study group didn't intend for them to adopt everything. But implementing the plan as a whole seems to be exactly what James Baker wanted.
Meanwhile, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is missing in action. The most serious matters of U.S. foreign policy look to be out of her hands, addressed instead by the Iraq Study Group and the White House press office.
What Now?
For many months, culminating in the mid-term elections, the American people have been agitating for a significant change in the execution of the Iraq war and occupation. "This isn't working, try something else," was the clear message. Following the mid-term elections, most of official Washington fell into agreement with the public... except for the leaders of the Bush Administration.Opinion polls indicate the public is willing to give the Iraq Study Group recommendations a fighting chance. Seven of 10 Republicans and 8 of 10 Democrats, for instance, favor talking with Iran and Syria as part of a larger plan to fix the problem.
If the President and his people don't make a real change, what will happen next?
Most tragically, there will be more American deaths in Iraq. And anti-American seething in Iraq and the region will produce more fertile soil for terrorist recruiting efforts.
Here at home, the new U.S. Congress will be forced to act. If the Bush Administration had accepted the Iraq Study Group recommendations there would be an irresistible sense that the changes should be given time to work. But without a change, Democrats and Republicans alike will call for hearings and investigations and keep the Iraq tragedy front and center everyday. Only the spectre of a "President Cheney" will keep articles of impeachment from gaining traction.
Ultimately, no change from the White House on Iraq will seal George W. Bush's fate with history. With no dramatically different tactic in the region, what chance is there that he will leave office in January of 2009 under anything but a cloud of humiliation?
