Full scale warfare across international borders are actually quite rare in the modern world. Most of the time, as with the 1990 Iraqi invasion of Kuwait or the 2008 dispute where Colombian forces entered Ecuador, the situation is met with sharply focused diplomacy and, failing a settlement, military action by the major powers (usually sanctioned by the United Nations Security Council or another international body).
But when one of the world's major powers is leading the invasion (think United States into Iraq in 2003), there is little the rest of the world can do to stop the incursion (even if they wanted to).
And this is where things seem to stand with the Russian incursion into Georgia. Lots of terms, issues, and references to international law are being waved around (self-determination, territorial integrity, power politics, sphere of influence, etc.) but nothing really trumps the reality that a powerful country (a nuclear powered, permanent member of the U.N. Security Council with full veto authority) can get away with an awful lot.
How Did We Get Here?
Think back to the end of the Cold War. U.S. President Ronald Reagan and Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev stroll together through Red Square. Later U.S. President George Bush and Gorbachev have a historic summit off the coast of Malta. The old Soviet Union falls apart and a democratic Russia emerges led by Boris Yeltsin. So far, so good. A new dawn of American-Russian cooperation seems to be appearing.But then Russia goes wobbly on democracy. Hawks in the United States can't let go of their Cold War mentality (and addiction to huge defense budgets and nuclear weapons). The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) pushes to add countries formerly part of the Soviet alliance. Russians feel a little trapped by all this, so they turn to a new leader, Vladimir Putin, trained by the KGB in the old, Cold War ways.
Neither the Clinton Administration or the next Bush Administration made a real effort to build a regional security framework which could have calmed Russian fears, bolstered democracy and prosperity in the region, and increased American and European security. Instead both sides slipped quite easily back into the containment and geo-political gamesmanship which were the hallmarks of the Cold War.
Within all this context, the United States continued to cuddle with Georgia, a country of great concern to neighboring Russia, and make sweet promises about NATO membership. Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili took all of this to heart and seems to have genuinely believed that the United States and Europe would come to his rescue if he provoked the Russians into an attack.
South Ossetia is clearly within the borders of Georgia, but the people there have long wanted to be independent or join their cousins in North Ossetia as part of Russia. On August 7, 2008, Saakashvili tried to assert Georgian control over the area, and Russia responded with overwhelming military force.
What Now?
Ceasefires are being finalized, and it is likely that some end to hostilities will be negotiated sooner rather than later. But it also seems inevitable that Russian forces will remain in control of South Ossetia and perhaps more Georgian territory.In the longer term, the implications from this seemingly small war could be huge. Writing in U.S. News and World Reports, Paul Saunders lists eight potential fallouts which all seem quite plausible. I will highlight three of them here which have special consequence for U.S. foreign policy:
- Disillusionment with the United States in much of the rest of the former Soviet Union, where Washington will be seen as failing to protect Georgia after Tbilisi provided 2,000 troops in Iraq. This could encourage some governments to pursue closer ties with Russia.
- Serious damage to the U.S.-Russian relationship, threatening cooperation on arms control, securing Russian nuclear materials, Iran, North Korea, terrorism, energy, and a host of other issues. Moscow's nonreaction to White House statements that the conflict could damage bilateral relations reflects the degree to which Russian officials see little benefit to working with Washington and have moved beyond their previous focus on U.S.-Russian ties.
- A suggestion to some countries, such as Iran, Syria, Venezuela, and Cuba, that with Russian support they can resist American pressure. Hamas and Hezbollah could be similarly emboldened. Most problematic, if America's ties to China sour, Beijing's tactical cooperation with Moscow could grow.
Other Resources
- Caucasus Conflicts, reporting from inside Georgia by the Pulitzer Center
- About Guide to World News is staying on top of the conflict
- Why is there conflict in South Ossetia?, from the About Guide to World News
- Day by Day: Georgia-Russia Crisis, from BBC News
- Undiplomatic, fun and insightful commentary from Charles J. Brown
- PostGlobal asks, "How should the world 'contain' this new Russia?"
- U.S.-Russian Relations, from the About Guide to U.S. Foreign Policy
- Timeline of U.S.-Russian Relations, from the About Guide to U.S. Foreign Policy