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US to China: Why Can’t We Be Friends?

Thursday November 19, 2009
President Barack Obama and Chinese President Hu Jintao, Beijing, November 2009 (Getty Images)
President Barack Obama and Chinese President Hu Jintao, Beijing, November 2009 (Getty Images)

On his four-nation November 2009 visit to Asia, President Obama met with President Hu Jintao of China and opined that the US and China were not destined to be adversaries. Obama held a town hall meeting in Shanghai and expressed his belief that the US and China can work together on issues such as climate change and nuclear proliferation.

If you poll US citizens, they believe otherwise. Only 51% viewed China as a military threat in a recent CNN poll but 71% percent of Americans viewed China as an economic threat to the United States. Economist Albert Keidel of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace says that the Chinese economy will surpass the US's and become the world's largest in 2035. The United States' debt to China, global competition for markets and energy, influence in the developing world and the struggle for superpower status must doom the US and China to chronic conflict. Right?

Despite wars in Korea and Vietnam, years of tension over the status of Taiwan, and occasional harassment of US ships and airplanes by Chinese armed forces, there has been no significant threat of direct US-Chinese military conflict in decades.

In the economic sphere, the US and China need each other. The US needs Chinese financing, commodities at a sufficiently low price to keep inflation in check and markets for American high-value goods and services. Likewise, China does not want the US to default on its debts nor lose its biggest export market. Looking into the future, if China is to become a global power, it needs better technology, productivity and education - which the US has in vast supply.

There are more reasons for the US and China to cooperate rather than to start a new Cold War. In fact, the US is pushing for Chinese leadership in international bodies like the G-20 because it wants China to shoulder global economic responsibility befitting its economic status. Young people in China as they gain economic independence and greater exposure to Western ideas and culture should gravitate toward a more democratic and open way of thinking.

So, President Obama's appeal for cooperation and collaboration is on the right track ... Well, at least today it is.

Hillary Clinton and Mideast Peace: The Hardest Job in the World

Monday November 16, 2009

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (State Department)

Who would want Hillary Clinton's job? Broker a Middle East peace accord? Not me.

Since the Sadat-Begin Agreement of 1977, the Israelis and Palestinians, like a commitment-shy bride and groom, talk of a peaceful, happy life together but cannot seem to make it to the altar. But to her credit, like a good matchmaker, Secretary of State Clinton keeps working to bring the parties together even if they seem to have lost the desire for peace. Her predecessor, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice didn't seem to have the stomach for it.

Just in November 2009, Secretary Clinton and her envoy Senator George Mitchell have had to contend with the following.

  • A bland meeting between President Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that produced no substantive results.
  • The only Palestinian official whom the Israelis will deal with, Mahmoud Abbas, announces he is quitting as President of the Palestinian Authority.
  • Hamas being accused of preventing Palestinian elections in Gaza.
  • A rebuke of Clinton for giving the Israelis credit for limiting the construction of new settlements in the West Bank, and subsequently pressure to state that the Israelis should cease building all settlements.
  • Palestinians refusal to negotiate with the Israelis until they agree to stop building settlements.
  • Israeli Government refusal to assist the UN with its ongoing probe of the Israeli incursion in Gaza in late 2008 and to recognize the findings of the Goldstone Report on the Gaza conflict.
  • The Israeli military intercepted a ship carrying cargo believed to be Iranian weapons being shipped to Syria for later transport to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Combine all this with Hamas' refusal to recognize Israel, Netanyahu's lack of enthusiasm for a two-state solution, lack of consensus on the status of Jerusalem, and the thousands of years of animosity and you have a no-win situation. Despite the United States' earnest intentions, real Mideast peace still seems distant.

If Secretary Clinton manages to get an agreement within the next 3 years, then she definitely deserves the Nobel Peace Prize.

Does The US Still Care About India?

Monday November 9, 2009
The Taj Mahal, Agra, India
The Taj Mahal, Agra, India (AFP/Getty Images)

Do you hear much about India in the news these days? You don't even hear much about American jobs being outsourced to India these days - a US Presidential election issue in 2004.

Before 9/11, the US was careful to act evenhanded toward both India and Pakistan as not to upset their delicate relationship. Earlier in the 1970s and 1980s, staunchly anti-communist Pakistan was the traditional US ally. India's geniality toward the Soviet Union offended US policymakers. Since the fall of the Soviet Union, India has remained one of South Asia's region's most stable democracies despite outbursts of civil unrest and political assassination.

With a growing economy and increasing economic links to the US, it appears that the American Government no longer needs to "manage the India situation" and instead, is focusing on the problems in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

For the US economy to climb out of the recession, it may need more to pay more attention to India, one of the world's most rapidly growing economies.

Off The Beaten Path: A Visit to Timor-Leste

Monday November 9, 2009
An Australian peacekeeper attracts the attention of East Timorese girls while on patrol in Dili, East Timor. (Paula Bronstein/Getty Images)
Australian peacekeeper attracts the attention of East Timorese girls while on patrol in Dili, East Timor's capital. (Paula Bronstein/Getty Images)

This week, I took my first trip to Timor-Leste, formerly known as East Timor, and it was an eye-opening experience.

Where is East Timor?

Timor-Leste is part of the Malay archipelago in the South Pacific located north of Australia and near Indonesia. The island is divided into East and West Timor. West Timor is Indonesian territory.

Political History

The Portuguese first landed in Timor in the 16th century. The island was eventually divided between the Dutch and the Portuguese. Portugal colonized East Timor in 1702. Portugal placed exiled convicts and cultivated coffee in Timor. During World War II, the Japanese captured Timor. After the Japanese surrender, East Timor was returned to Portugal. After Portugal transitioned to a democracy in 1974, East Timor declared its independence from Portugal in 1975. Shortly after independence, Indonesia invaded East Timor and annexed it quickly as its 27th province. Timorese guerillas continued to battle the Indonesian military during the occupation.

The period of Indonesian occupation is reported to have been brutal and repressive with as many as 100,000 Timorese killed. After the fall of Indonesia's ruler Suharto, East Timor declared its independence in 1999. Indonesian troops destroyed much of East Timor's infrastructure upon withdrawal.

Since independence, East Timor, now called Timor-Leste, has been far from stable. There was a violent uprising in 2006 and an attempted assassination of the President in 2008.

Relations Between the US and Timor-Leste

The main area of political cooperation between the US and Timor-Leste is international development. There is an American Embassy in Dili, Timor-Leste's capital. The US Agency for International Development has a sizable presence in Timor-Leste and is working to improve economic growth, health care, and democratic processes. Timor-Leste seeks to become a full member of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

Impressions of Timor-Leste

Despite being an island in the South Pacific, it seems surprisingly dry. The terrain is mountainous. The rainy season should be starting soon and everyone looks forward to it. It is in the mid-90s everyday. At least it's not brutally humid.

It is brutally poor. Timor is the poorest country in Asia. It's the first place I've been to that is like the films in 6th grade social studies. 50% of the people don't finish primary school. Life expectancy is 55-60. They have cattle in Timor but don't export meat because there is no slaughterhouse to process the meat. They don't export fruits to Australia because they don't have the proper fumigation system. My hotel room was a converted shipping container.

There are pockets of creature comforts in the capital city because of a very large UN community here. But there is very little indigenous wealth. The scuba diving here is purported to be world-class so there are some 5-star resorts in development. There are many foreigners running around here. TL is one of the world's newest countries, poor and post conflict. As a result, many international NGOs and other groups are here. There was violence here in 2006 and the UN basically took over the place. Many people have raised their standard of living by building service businesses supporting the UN. When the UN leaves, they are unsure what they will do.

In the country, the poverty is apparent. Barefoot children. Adults wearing donor T-shirts. Thatched huts. Subsistence farmers and fisherman. People hunting feral pigs and goats with machetes. (I saw three pigs on a sandbar out in the sea.) There is little employment in rural areas.

People are very nice. The Timorese I have encountered are quite bright and pleasant. Few speak English. Despite the economic conditions, people do not beg for money. They try to find work or sell things on the street.  Almost half the people in the country live in poverty as defined by the UN, less than 1 dollar per day. $3.50 per day is a good salary. A great deal of economic development work remains to be done.

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